Friday 14 August 2009

DOES ‘PLAN E’ HAVE A PLAN B?


‘Plan E’ is socialist Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s master plan to revive the Spanish economy.

Plan E stands for Plan Espanol para el Estimulo de la Economia y el Empleo (Plan to Stimulate the Economy and Employment of Spain). It involves the Spanish government spending prodigious amounts of money primarily on construction and infrastructure (drainage, roads etc.) projects. In fact, there are supposed to be 29,200 projects involving 7, 736 town halls (local governments). 14,000 businesses are allegedly involved and ‘Plan E’ is supposed to provide employment for some 400,000 people.

By anyone’s standards ‘Plan E’ is a brave undertaking and a bold attempt to prevent economic meltdown within Spain.

Certainly, something needs to be done. Most commentators think that unemployment, now standing at almost 18%, will climb to 20% by the end of 2009 with Citibank forecasting that Spain’s unemployment could reach an appalling 22% in 2010.

The question is whether ‘Plan E’ will work - or prove to be a disastrous waste of precious resources.

Obviously, only time will tell - but spending on infrastructure projects tends to be short term and not something that generates continued future employment and wealth. Once a road or new drainage system has been constructed, all employment related to it, obviously, ceases. Generally, the chances of an infrastructure project producing further work (and non-governmental money) over the forseeable future is tiny.

Regeneration projects, therefore, need to be planned, analysed and undertaken with great care and sensitivity. If they are not then their chances of providing a long term solution are probably no better than someone placing a temporary (and extremely expensive) bandage over a deep wound that will continue to bleed dangerously until stitched properly.

Of course Spain, (like the UK), has the present management of their economy in the hands of the very people in government who were negligent in allowing the crisis to occur in the first place.

So, expecting Prime Minister Zapertero to get any solution to the crisis right, on the basis of past performance, is a long shot indeed. Like UK Prime Minister Brown, Zapertero comes from the ‘spend come what may’ philosophy. When times are good, he spends as if there is no tomorrow. However, when ‘tomorrow’ and a predictable crisis arrives his answer is – to spend more. These are hardly the actions of a prudent housewife and are more akin to those of a multiply divorced harlot...

Does this matter to North Europeans coming to Spain? To some extent it does.

Naturally, the majority of foreigners coming to Spain have their own incomes (pensions etc.) so any Spanish economic troubles are largely academic. There are others, though, who have come to Spain to work who will suffer should ‘Plan E’ not function as intended. However, importantly, few people enjoy living in any country when economic hardship occurs and brings with it sustained pain and depression to the daily lives of its people.

Finally, there are ‘Plan E’ signs everywhere! These are impressive in size and design and anecdotally are said to cost around 2,000 Euros by the time they are erected and in place. With some projects supposedly costing less than that figure (and yet evidentally still accompanied by their signs!), it is hard not to suspect that, at heart, ‘Plan E’ is probably flawed.1

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